尽管今年前几个月油船拆解量创造新的纪录,但是油船分析师和经纪商越来越担心持续的运力过剩,尤其是VLCC领域,这一领域最近出现了大量的新船订单,而低船价以及环保法规的影响,可能会吸引更多的投机者参与进来,今后预计还将有更多新船订单。

今年以来,原油船运费率遭受了灾难性的影响,尽管最近几天有所回升,但是仍处于严重亏损水平。石油输出国组织扩大了产量限制,美国页岩油产量再次上升,削减了吨英里需求,紧张的地缘政治背景加剧了市场的不确定性。

然而,尽管出现这些不利因素,今年以来,原油船新船订单迅速增加。Poten& Partners、E.A. Gibson和Bimco首席分析师Peter Sand都警告,现在的一系列新船订单只会让亏损持续的时间更长。

事实上,今年VLCC船队已经大幅减少,第一季度VLCC报废量达到820万载重吨,创下1982年以来的季度最高纪录。5月中旬,大约有24艘VLCC售出拆解。尽管如此,VLCC手持订单量目前达到108艘,相当于现有船队运力的15%,其中超过40艘将在今年交付。相比去年同期,VLCC手持订单量增长20%。

根据克拉克森的数据,在其他大型油船中,苏伊士型油船手持订单量为49艘,约占现有船队规模的8.5%;阿芙拉型油船手持订单量为125艘,约占现有船队规模的13.1%。

经纪人报告表示,最近的大量新船订单基于船队更新需求。但是他们越来越担心,低船价的影响以及市场可能的迅速转向,会吸引投机者参与进来,这些投机者会受船厂低价诱惑以及快速转手赚钱的机会而疯狂下单。

在目前行情如此之差以及前景不确定的情况下,除了船厂的低价诱惑之外,吸引投机者的可能是新法规对老旧船舶的影响。

当然,最紧迫的是国际海事组织(IMO)实行0.5%硫排放上限要求,这将在未来18个月内对行业造成冲击。三种遵循环保法规的对应之策——使用低硫燃料、继续使用重油但安装洗涤器、使用液化天然气燃料。

此前,国际航运公会(ICS)警告称,除非硫排放上限生效的不确定性得到澄清,否则可能会出现“混乱”。报告称,燃料供应可能成为一个主要问题。

ICS主席EsbenPoulsson表示:“到2020年1月1日,全世界每个港口都将有足够的符合要求的燃料供应,但这一点还远未确定。”“而且,由于炼油厂承诺的许多新型混合燃料没有全球标准,使用不兼容的燃油会导致一些潜在的严重安全问题。”

除了这些安全问题外,还有一些人担心燃料成本会急剧上升。船用燃料供应商建议,低硫燃料将获得巨额溢价,因为需要额外精炼。传统重油价格也可能上涨,由于炼油和混合燃料增多,传统重油供应将减少。而且船用燃料供应商将在投资洗涤器的船舶运营商中拥有一个专属市场。

未来还有压载水问题需要处理,虽然时间不算太紧,但是对于一艘大型船舶来说,可能需要投资两三百万美元。

目前,船龄超过15年的阿芙拉型油船、苏伊士型油船和VLCC超过300艘,其中约有一半是VLCC。如果经济不景气,许多这样的VLCC将会拆解。这也许是吸引投机者参与的原因。


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