全球活跃船厂数量继续减少,中国活跃船厂数量仅剩112家,已经将至15年来新低,与此同时,中国民营船企“活跃船厂”数量锐减,而国有船企“活跃船厂”却达到了18年来的最高水平。中国造船业如今真的是“冰火两重天”。

克拉克森在其近期发布的报告中称,自全球金融危机以来,全球活跃船厂(手持订单中至少有一艘1000+ GT船舶)数量迅速下滑,截止今年4月初降至350家。这一趋势在中国尤为明显,大量独立船企越来越难接获新船订单。

克拉克森数据显示,4月初,中国活跃船厂数量已经从2009年年初的391家降至112家,是2003年以来的最低水平。在中日韩三大造船国中,中国活跃船厂数量降幅最大。在同一时间段内,韩国活跃船厂数量从39家降至14家,日本活跃船厂数量从70家降至55家。

不过,中国不同船企的情况差异明显。从2009年初至今年4月初,包括中船集团和中船重工、以及由其他国有船企活跃数量从52家减少至44家,而独立船企的活跃数量从305家锐减至50家,降幅高达85%;合资、外资和地方政府船企活跃数量从34家减少到18家。因此,截止4月初,由政府背景支持的船企数量在中国活跃船厂总数中占比达40%,是2000年以来的最高水平,而2009年初这一比例为13%。

中国手持订单量排名前20船厂(截止4月初)

 

数据来源:克拉克森

数据显示,尽管中国船企总体订单量有所下降,但去年国家支持的船企接单量共计255艘、630万CGT,按CGT计算在总订单量中占比59%,显著高于2009年的31%,这得益于来自国家相关利益订单的支持。相比之下,独立船企去年接单量减少至177艘、340万CGT,占比从2009年的50%降至31%。在截止4月初的中国手持订单量排名前20船厂统计中,国有船企12家,民营船企仅6家,还有2家是独资和合资船企。

与此同时,独立船企正在加速整合。2017年,新扬子造船和新时代造船两家船厂占据了独立船企接单量的70%(按CGT计算),而2009年同样的比例来自超过30家船厂。受此影响,国家支持的船企手持订单量在全国总手持订单中所占比例已经从2009年初的44%增至今年4月初的57%,回升至2006年的水平。

根据克拉克森此前统计,在造船周期接近最高点的2009年初,全球活跃船厂数量最高达到934家,到2007年全球活跃船厂数量减少至860家,2016年9月初,全球活跃船厂进一步降至402家,减少了一半以上,平均每年减少60多家。2017年9月统计数据为357家,也是统计以来最低的数据,截止4月初最新数据是350家,半年内数量仅减少7家,显示活跃船厂数量减少速度已经大幅放缓,这也显示了新造船市场已经开始企稳回升。


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